Last update - 10:34 02/06/2004
The fuel that ignited Beirut
By Zvi Bar'el
When riots broke out last week in the Sulam neighborhood of Beirut, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was sitting in Bashar Assad's palace, built by Hariri's contracting company, and discussing with him Lebanon's internal politics.
When news that five civilians had been killed by army fire reached Hariri, he headed back to the Lebanese capital. He knew that some people would make use of the riots to attack him and his government. Not the Lebanese Workers Union, the umbrella organization of the professional sector that announced a general strike and was behind the riots, but the man residing in Lebanon's Baabda palace, President Emile Lahoud.
The direct pretext for the general strike announcement and the street protests that accompanied it in most Lebanese cities was the large increase in gasoline prices announced by the government. In Israel, gasoline is priced per liter and in the U.S. per gallon, but in Lebanon the prices are per jerry can of 20 liters. The price is currently $15.5 per jerry can, which comes out to approximately NIS 2.85 a liter. For Israelis that is a price that is long forgotten, but in Lebanon that is a sky-high price, approximately 70 percent more expensive than gasoline is in Syria and 50 percent more expensive than in Egypt.
Lebanon is a country of cars. The national average is one car for every 2.3 citizens and in total there are over 1.5 million registered cars in Lebanon. Most of them, or around 90 percent, are privately owned. This is also a country of taxis. Some 38,000 taxis operate there and according to the government's estimate, that is 100 percent higher than demand. This explains the intense competition among taxi drivers, which leads to a situation where every minor gas price increase makes the workday unprofitable.
The big strike was meant first of all to express the displeasure of the professional drivers, primarily cab drivers, who are also not permitted to use the less expensive crude oil under the environmental protection law passed by the Lebanese government. But at the same time, the professional unions hitched a ride on the back of the country's economic plight and transformed the strike's slogan from a protest against high gasoline prices into a cry for a proper economy.
Ostensibly, Lebanon is flourishing economically. The economic indexes indicate 4 percent growth in 2003 and a forecast of 5 percent growth by the end of 2004. Tourism has not soared this much in over 20 years. Approximately 1.1 million tourists visited Lebanon in 2003 (compared to half a million tourists annually in the late 1990s) and 1.5 million are expected in 2005. The September 11 attacks and the anti-Arab policies of the United States and some European countries have made Lebanon a favored destination of Arab tourists. Foreign investment is apparent in every sphere - clothing shops, restaurants and luxury hotels opening every month and real estate prices are surging.
However, this is only a partial picture. Lebanon is burdened by more than a $35 billion debt and half of its budget is allocated to debt repayment. There is also uneven distribution of development. While Beirut gets the largest chunk of investments, the southern and eastern parts of the country remain without any investment at all. In southern Lebanon, for example, which last week celebrated the fourth anniversary of the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces, they are still waiting for the payment of compensation for damages incurred by civilians during the period of the Israeli occupation. This compensation, which is being funded by donor countries, goes through the Lebanese government and from there to the Council for the Management of South Lebanon and then to the citizens. On the way, there are, as usual, those who take their cut.
Unemployment in southern Lebanon is rising and is higher than elsewhere in the country. Therefore there is also a steady flow of people from the south to the big cities, and the villages are left with an aging population that is not renewing itself. The cost of living in the south soared after the Israeli withdrawal as the state was then able to levy taxes that citizens were exempt from paying while under occupation. As a rule, the government presence in the south is minimal, and Hezbollah activists and some members of the Amal movement, headed by the speaker of parliament, Nabih Beri, run the day-to-day affairs there. However, these economic pretexts for the public protest were not created this week.
There is another explanation for the big strike that is not linked to gasoline prices or unemployment rates. Lebanon is now in the middle of a political fight in advance of the presidential elections. President Lahoud's six-year term ends this November. And, as at the end of every presidential term in office, questions are starting to surface - and Syria is involved in this - about the next president.
According to Lebanon's constitution, there is no possibility of extending or renewing a president's term, and he can run for the post again only after six years from the end of his previous term. Emile Lahoud is an ally of Syria and as far as Bashar Assad is concerned, the preferred solution is for Lahoud to continue in office. However, in order to achieve this, Syria must make the Lebanese parliament amend the constitution.
The current structure of the parliament may actually help Syria achieve its wish. Lahoud has the support of Amal and Hezbollah representatives and also counts on the support of the elected Druze representatives. Even the Maronite representatives, who are not pleased with the close ties between Lahoud and Syria, do not for the moment see any suitable alternative candidate for the presidency.
However, Lahoud's biggest opponent is Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and his group of supporters in parliament. There is so much tension between Hariri and Lahoud that there have been times when the two did not speak with each other.
Contact man
This opposition poses a dilemma for Syria. Ostensibly, Syria can prompt Hariri's resignation or bring about his upset in the next parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in the spring, around four months after the scheduled presidential elections. However, Syria now needs Hariri more than ever. Hariri is the best international contact man Lebanon ever had. He is welcomed in Washington and in European capitals and if there is anyone who can raise funds for Lebanon, it is Hariri. At a time when Syria is the target of American sanctions and its ability to attract investors is shrinking, Hariri can help. Therefore, Syria's preferred balance of power is: Lahoud as president of Lebanon, and Hariri as a weakened prime minister who cannot undermine Lahoud's authority.
This Syrian balance has now been helped by the local elections in Lebanon in which Hezbollah decisively defeated its Shi'ite rival; Amal and Hariri's loyalists lost. These elections delineated the limits of Hariri's power, and their results suggest what is to be expected in the next parliamentary elections. Judging by these results, Hariri will need Syria's help to continue serving as prime minister for another term as well. This is the kind of dependence Syria desired. One can also conclude Amal's losses in local elections weakened Nabih Beri.
The big strike came with perfect timing into the middle of this web of considerations. It turned into a violent clash between the army and protesters, with six civilians dead and dozens injured. It was primarily an angry protest against the Hariri government. The banners waved criticized the economic situation, blaming Hariri and government negligence - ridiculously evident two weeks ago when the government ordered a reduction in gasoline prices but the gas stations did not obey.
Syria, usually terrified by any street protests in Lebanon, maintained radio silence. Because when there is shooting on the streets of Beirut and the situation heats up, Syria can argue its role as the keeper of order in Lebanon has not ended. Syria, of course, is not upset that Hariri is being blamed for the outcome of the protest. It will certainly be useful when the question of extending President Lahoud's term comes up for discussion.